Win, Place and (Talk) Show

by Brian McKim & Traci Skene on May 12th, 2008

In this article in Vanity Fair, Jim Windolf handicaps the upcoming race among late night television talk show hosts. Over the next few months, Leno leaves, Conan moves to 11:30, Letterman’s contract is up and/or due for renewal and today, at the upfronts, network suits will formally announce that Jimmy Fallon is supposedly slated to take Conan’s place.

When the dust settles from this multi-million dollar musical chairs, the landscape will be significantly different. As the investors are bound by law to tell you, past performance is no guarantee of future results. So Windolf’s speculation has about a five-minute shelf life (as does ours).

It is especially puzzling that the author seems to have a blind spot when it comes to two of the players– Jimmy Kimmel and Craig Ferguson. Paragraph three:

Out of all the late-night hosts, with the possible exception of the sleepy Jimmy Kimmel, Ferguson seems the least ambitious. Unlike O’Brien, Letterman, Leno, and Jon Stewart—all of whom seethe to be the best in their field—Ferguson seems content to put on a nice little show. A former film director and sitcom second banana, he has the relaxed manner of someone who has already proved himself, at least to his own satisfaction. He’s warm, non-neurotic. He would probably make a great dinner-party guest. But his show, which is friendly, civil, and homey, is more about keeping a time slot warm than creating something new or setting the ratings on fire.

We note that this is the only reference to Kimmel. It may be significant that he refers to him as “sleepy.” Don’t let the heavy eyelids fool you. Kimmel may be the man who smokes everyone in the long run– a sleeper who comes from way back in the pack to finish first.

And Ferguson may be his biggest rival. That description of Ferguson’s Late, Late Show— “friendly, civil, and homey… more about keeping a time slot warm than creating something new or setting the ratings on fire”– is a perfect description of Carson’s version of Tonight.

And Windolf’s scenario that sees Jon Stewart goes to 11:30 or later would be a disaster. A late-night Stewart would go the way of Dennis Miller, Rick Dees, Joan Rivers, David Brenner and the handful of others (including Stewart himself!) who tried and failed to catch on after the local news.

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