Stern fans disappear
An LAT article (free reg. req.) says that only a small fraction of Stern fans followed him when he made the switch from terrestrial radio to Sirius.
The self-proclaimed King of All Media once commanded a national audience of 12 million daily listeners before jumping to satellite in January. But since then, his kingdom has shrunk to a small fraction of that size. Meanwhile, the shock jock’s main replacements thus far have failed to hold very much of the former flock.
Were the numbers puffed out by the various local and national radio station sales forces? Were there a lot of self-identifying Stern fans who weren’t sufficiently dedicated (or not actually listening in the first place)? Just how reliable was this 12 million figure to begin with?
When we first heard that Howard was headed for the bird, for a giant bundle of cash, we crunched the numbers (which we thought were legit) and figured it was worth Sirius’ hard-earned cash. Now, of course, we admit we were wrong. The over paying of Stern might bring Sirius down, or, at the least, it may force them to merge with XM. XM’s bid to lure O & A listeners failed, but the price tag was a fraction of that for Stern.
As for the other local and/or syndie Stern subs not holding any of Stern’s old audience, we called that one. We still maintain that once the current crop of subs washes out, there will be local, unknown, but original, personalities or teams that will step up. They’ve been waiting for Stern to get out of their way for a decade or more, all the while honing their radio skills. Of course, radio execs with hazy memories think that all one has to do is “introduce” or “announce”the next big radio star and off he takes!
Bob & Tom will benefit. As will John Boy & Billy. And, along with them, standup will benefit, as each emphasizes comedy (the former moreso than the latter). Humor in general, and standup in particular, has been a big part of morning radio success. The collapse of Stern’s base might indicate that genuine humor is winning out over shock, cruelty and irony.
XM’s comedy channels, we hear, are among the most popular of their channels. O & A’s show, initially a premium offering, is now available for free. Further evidence that comedy is winning out over shock? When folks overcome their reluctance to pay for radio– and when they discover the richness of the offerings thereon, the numbers will puff out bigtime. No amount of marquee names or stunts will push them into satellite radio. And when those puffy numbers get even puffier, there will be even more comedy channels, exposing standup and standup comics to ever more listeners. Full disclosure: Four clips from the Male Half of the Staff’s act have been added to the XM 150 rotation and The Female Half of the Staff recently did battle with a crowd full of rambunctious O & A fans during a recent set.
When we pulled into Mesquite last week, we heard a local broadcast, perhaps out of Vegas, that was running “Five O’Clock Funnies,” or some such feature– a short snippet of recorded standup, sponsored this day by the Comedy Club at the Riv. We were somewhat annoyed that they didn’t back-announce the comic. One of the beauties of XM is that they often identify the comics beforehand and, right there on the radio unit, the name (and the name of the bit) appears on the LCD readout during the bit. If you don’t think that’s significant, consider that, on a recent evening, XM jock Joel Haas siad that he’s been getting a lot of requests for Tom Hester‘s “Fistful of Pills” routine. Comedy fans who display that amount of savvy are nothing but good for business.
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Reply to: Stern fans disappear
i think your math might be a bit off concerning the relative success of howard stern. when stern announced the move to sirius, the company had approximately 600,000 subscribers and was _far_ behind XM. as of march, that number was 4 Million. even if one discounts the idea that stern was responsible for all the 3.4 million, it’s hard to deny that the free publicity that the move generated went a long way towards selling subscriptions.at 12.95 a person, the 3.4 million translates into approximately 44 million dollars a month (or half a billion dollars a year in stern generated income). if stern is able to hold his listeners for even one year, he’s more than paid for his enormous 5 year package.more importantly, though, is the fact that sirius has snagged mindshare away from xm. when people used to think of satellite radio, they thought xm first. now, they think howard stern and sirius. on the idea that stern’s fans “failed to follow him”, i think the media is undercutting a bit just how impressive it is to get a full 25% (3 million out of 12 million) of your audience to be willing to pay $13 a month for what they used to get for free. imagine getting 25% follow through from your mailing list! if you sent a bulletin to your myspace friends (say 200 of them) and 50 showed up to the show you were advertising, wouldn’t this be a mind-blowing number? most direct mailing campaigns, i’ve heard, are happy with 1 or 2% return.to put it another way, could you think of another performer with that kind of clout? i can think of only one — the NFL. sterns move reminds me of espn’s aquiring of the sunday night package (and later the monday night package) from the NFL. it cost a seemingly huge amount of money, but eventually paid for itself, first in mindshare and then actual subscriptions.i do agree with you that it’ll be interesting to see what his departure means in terms of stand-up related free-fm. i’m interested in this myself. to call the stern move a failure, though, i think is wrong. unless my math is off, it seems to me to be an unqualified success.(full disclosure: i’m a stern fan who has listened for ten years. the current pay-show — i have two subscriptions — is _fantastic_ as well as being much more stand-up friendly. the monthly roast shows run by rev. bob levy have been a great national showcase for northeast based comics. i’ve recently heard the very funny mike morse and romont harris get great responses from stern and his crew!)
Sirius may have gained since signing Howard, but they did so because of many other factors besides Howard.They made the signing announcement the first week of October. Just before the Christmas retail frenzy begins. And they did so with incentives already in place for the upcoming holiday season. (You’ll recall that XM was giving away radios, literally, as incentive to sign up. Sirius offered similar deals.)And, even if they gained after Howard (and some of those signups were directly due to Howard), they are still probably only going to get their money’s worth if a) the folks who sign up stay signed up and b) the number continue to stay the same or go up. (And even then, we won’t know if the increases are due to the Stern magnet or a general acceptance of pay radio or other additions to the Sirius package like the NFL, etc.From what we hear, operating costs are wicked and both services are burning through cash at a spectacular rate. Sirius still trails XM in the number of subscribers. Howard has publicly berated his fans (ex-fans?) for not following him, so even he is of the opinion that the signing is not yet an unqualified success.(From a cultural/artistic point of view, we are of the opinion that Stern, unfettered, will be quite a letdown for his listeners. Without the arch-enemy FCC to villify, he has lost one of the necessary elements for his morality play. The tingle of doing something “wrong” will be gone. This alone might be resonsible for a failure of his fans to switch to satellite. Time will tell.)
I think good points are made in all of the preceeding posts.In our case, we are always looking to get our talent on as many media outlets as possible. I would argue that in some markets, the opportunities are not as numerous as they may have once been. Those challenges notwithstanding, we recently had Norton in the club, and there was a definite difference in the make-up of the audience, and plenty of O&A shirts (our market never had O&A) prior to subscription based radio.I think the net-net for comedians who are being heard on XM or Sirius that they will benefit more quickly than through more traditional market by market radio opportunities.
You write that “The collapse of Stern’s base might indicate that genuine humor is winning out over shock, cruelty and irony.” I agree that cruelty is never funny, and irony is only sometimes funny. Shock is not necessarily funny, although I’ll bet funny is almost always surprising in some way, if not downright shocking. Stern’s bit about Fartman in Private Parts (which I confess I bought used for pennies on the dollar–and I have never paid money to listen to or watch him) is one of the absolutely most hilarious things I’ve ever read. Let’s not write him off too soon. The man is downright talented.
I’m a little surprised that such aficianados of comedy as yourselves dismiss Stern as “shock.” There were certainly things about Stern’s show I didn’t care for (I could live with never hearing another stripper or porn star interviewed) but if you spend any time listening to Stern you have to admit that he is a genuinely funny guy. He’s very quick and self deprecating, and a skilled interviewer. Although he gets noticed for asking celebrities the obvious stuff about their sex lives and such, he also asks a lot of questions that make for an interesting interview.Stern can certainly be criticized for much of the content of his show, but it’s a lot more than just “shock.”