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Step right up, place your bets
The article on SportsBookGurus.com was written by “Bonnie.” It is entitled, “Last Comic Standing Betting Odds List Tommy Johnagin As Fan Favorite.” We’re not sure where they get their data from (probably from a number of sources and probably very secret), but they’re offering odds on who will be the last comic standing.
Contestants of Last Comic Standing are really bringing out the big guns for the semi finals. It is turning out to be a close race. It is no surprise that funny man Craig Robinson is the highlight of every episode, but he is closely followed by some of America’s up and coming professional comedians. There was a challenging round of semi-finals, but after Tuesday night’s episode, America now has their top ten for season 7 of Last Comic Standing.
This kind of thing has been going on for years. Similar sites have offered odds on all sorts of things, like US political races and, of course, sporting events. These fellows offer odds on LCS, World Cup and who will replace Larry King!
Tommy Johnagin +300
Maronzio Vance +400
James Adomian +450
Roy Wood Jr. +450
Myq Kaplan +700
Felipe Esparza +900
Jonathan Thymius +900
Mike DeStefano +1200
Laurie Kilmartin +1400
Rachel Feinstein +1400
According to Wikipedia, these are moneyline odds or “American” odds. To find out just what you’re getting into, we offer Wikipedia’s explanation of moneyline odds:
To convert fractional odds to decimal, you take the fractional number, convert it to decimal by doing the division, and then you add 1. For example, the 4/1 fractional odds shown above is the same as 5 in decimal odds. While 1/4 would be quoted as 1.25.
To convert moneyline to decimal odds it depends on whether it’s positive or negative. If it’s positive, you divide by 100 and add 1. +400 moneyline is the same as 5.0 in decimal odds. If the moneyline is negative, to convert, first remove the minus sign, then instead of dividing by 100, you take 100 and divide it by the moneyline amount, then you add 1. For example, -400 moneyline is 100/400 + 1 in decimal, or 1.25
Got that?
Neither do we.
Sometimes, Wikipedia doesn’t help at all.
But this much we know: If you put money on Tommy Johnagin, and he wins, you win some money. If you put money on Rachel Feinstien or Laurie Kilmartin and one of them wins, you win a lot of money.
7 Responses
Reply to: Step right up, place your bets
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Basically the moneyline works like this:
Johnagin is the fave @ +300. For every $100 bet you will recieve $300. (A $200 profit for each $100 you bet.)
Feinstein and Kilmartin are the dark horses at +1400.
For every $100 you bet you are returned $1400 if your bet wins. ( A nice $1300 return on your $100 investment.)
Just for the record, a line of -200, for example, means that for every $200 you bet, you will recieve $100. So if you bet $10 you’d get $15 (a $5 profit) should your bet win.
And just to stir the pot, funny how the two females are the worst seeds.
Thanks to Doyle and Vince… we knew our readers wouldn’t let us down.
Of course, they don’t care about being right, just whacking it right down the middle and taking their small profit. But, in a sense, they have to be “right” when determining the middle.
As for secret sources, they gather information and determine the middle. Some of the information is known to all, some is known to very few. Like when a sportsbook get information on injuries or internal strife or any of a number of thing, they make their determination based on such information. When you deal with major league sports, they have rules governing the mandatory disclosure of injuries… probably brought about because of wagering.
In the case of LCS, we doubt the lines are made with the benefit of such secret info. But we also would guess that there isn’t a whole lot of money at stake, due to the relatively small number of wagers placed on such a contest.
Doyle’s close…the money line is the profit, not the total payout. If you win a $100 bet at +300, you win $300 plus the return of your $100 for a total of $400.
Nor does the sportsbook have any “secret sources”; they simply make their best guess at the lines and then adjust the lines as people bet. If a few people made big bets on, say, Laurie Kilmartin (who’s a screaming pick at 14 to 1), then the line on her would drop significantly. The sportsbook doesn’t care about being “right”; it simply matches the offered odds to the amount of money coming in to make sure that it wins a small amount no matter who the winner of the show is.
What would be really interesting to find out would be the total amount wagered on the show. It’s also not clear on the site where exactly you can make those wagers.
Yeah Vince busted me… that’s why I don’t lay bets in Vegas at 3:30am after 1 or 20 beers in me.
I’m voting for Crystal Bowersox!
Maybe I’ve just seen too much standup comedy over the years, but I only thought 5 out of 10 had sets last night that would even be considered funny, and only about 3 appeared to stand out. I got the impression that 5/10 have already used their “A” material. If true, it could be very rough going in future shows.
Those odds look like they’re from someone judging the content of the act and forgetting the level of the voting public who can hit “redial” ten times (why should people be allowed to vote more than once…for anything? But I digress…)
Rachel at the bottom, odds-wise? Isn’t this the show that crowned Dat Phan and Iliza Schlesinger? She doesn’t have 1/10th the material that several of the others have – including some who didn’t even make it this far – but she is all about the physical gestures and the ethnic accents. I’ll bet America Gone Wild has her in the top 3, if not higher.